Bournemouth vs. Newcastle United
Saturday morning, Newcastle will host Bournemouth at Saint James’ Park. With matches resumed after a short break, I anticipate a fairly lively weekend. In this one, we have a young Newcastle side hoping to break into the top 8, if not the top 6.
The primary reason for this is the significant investment made by their new owners. Even though they are only 11th on the table, I am pleased with their start to the season. Two of their first six games were against Manchester City and Liverpool.
Furthermore, their NPxGD ranks ninth. In my opinion, the Magpies are an above-average team when compared to the rest of the league. They should easily beat the bottom six teams and draw with the top teams outside of City and Liverpool.
Except for those two games, Newcastle has a +.75 xG differential against teams like Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Wolves, and Crystal Palace. Two sides that are above average and two sides that are in the bottom six. The point is that they should be able to beat teams like Bournemouth at home.
The Cherries, on the other hand, have had a difficult start to the season, despite sitting 14th in the table. They took advantage of a raucous crowd in their first Premier League home game to defeat a mediocre Villa side.
Their other victory came at the expense of Forest, another struggling promoted side, in a game they deserved to lose. They are last in NPxGD, with a score of -1.4/90 minutes. The underlying numbers are extremely poor. They did fire Scott Parker, and the Forest won as a result.
However, I doubt that this will continue. Bournemouth, I believe, will finish last and will continue to struggle against the above-average competition. They have been defeated by Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool by a combined score of 16-0. Newcastle is not one of them, but rather the next tier down. I predict a 2-0 3-0 victory for the home team.
Pick: Newcastle Moneyline / Under 3.5 Parlay (+119) 1.5 Units
West Ham United vs. Everton
The next game I’m interested in is on Sunday. Keep in mind that this is a shortened schedule, with three matches rescheduled. Everton was a team I had reservations about going into the season. A club with a long history that narrowly avoided relegation last season.
Furthermore, they simply did not add enough in the transfer window for me to be optimistic. So far, 17th, with 4 points after 6 matches. This group enjoys drawing and has shared the spoils in four of the six games. They have also gone under the total in 5 of their 6 matches.
This is self-explanatory given that they lost Richarlison to Tottenham and Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been injured. Anthony Gordon is one of the few bright spots on the offensive side. Because of this, I’ve had success playing their under. Everton is 15th in NPxGD, which is a little higher than their current position. I believe they will continue to struggle without DCL. He could play on Sunday, so keep an eye out for updates before placing wagers.
The Hammers have had a disastrous start by their standards. 18th in the table, also with 4 points. I don’t think West Ham will stay here, and the statistics back me up. They are ranked 12th in NPxGD. We still need a larger sample size, but we have to start somewhere.
One source of concern is striker Michail Antonio, who has only produced 1.3 xG in six games. For comparison, Anthony Gordon has 1.7 xG and isn’t even Everton’s #9. They did add Italian striker Gianluca Scamacca, who should help in the long run. In the short term, it remains to be seen. On Thursdays, they compete in the Europa Conference League, where they are putting up better numbers.
The Hammers’ Group stage victories of 3-1 and 3-2 are encouraging, but they may become fatigued. They don’t have a very deep squad, so it could cost them in Premier League games. For me, this is a draw and underplay. This season, Everton prefers a low-scoring draw because their offense has yet to score more than once.
West Ham has an attack, but it has yet to be seen in domestic play. They may also be tired after playing midweek. That’s the look I’m going for.
Pick: Everton / West Ham United are my picks. Under 2.5 (-120) 1.5 Units
West Ham United / Everton Draw +226 1.5 Units