Dillon Essma, EPL Betspert, provides the most recent week 5 Premier League betting tips. Learn about the best bets and picks in the English Premier League.
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle United
Crystal Palace is in 13th place, just below Newcastle, with 5 points from 5 games. Their NPxGD ranks them 17th, but I would argue that this is skewed due to the schedule. It’s a tough start to have to play City, Liverpool, and Arsenal in three of your first five games. Given the circumstances, I believe 1 point per match is a commendable effort.
Patrick Vieira is doing an outstanding job with this team. They have several talented attackers, none of whom are household names. Wilfred Zaha is the club’s only “star.” Conor Gallagher moved on, and look how he’s doing now that he’s out of the system. I’m becoming more and more confident in this manager’s ability to pull the strings.
I enjoy playing Palace as a dog, but one of the main reasons I do so is due to Newcastle’s injury problems. They are unlikely to have their entire squad available, and they gave it their all at Anfield. In the midweek match, Palace drew 1-1 with Brentford. I believe this is an excellent location to support the visitors.
Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-122) 1.5 Units
Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa attempt to halt their slide by hosting Manchester City at Villa Park on Saturday. That should not make Villa fans feel any better, but that is the reality. With only three points from their first five games, it’s safe to say Steven Gerrard’s season has been a disaster.
Most pundits were excited for this second season, but if he doesn’t stop the bleeding soon, he may find himself on the hot seat. Their lone victory came against Everton, who are also struggling, and they almost blew it late on. My biggest disappointment with this team is how inept and slow their attack appears to be.
When I was watching the West Ham and Arsenal games, it seemed like they were never going to create a shot, let alone put one in the net. The data is kinder to them, with them ranking 15th in NPxGD versus 19th in the table. After seeing them do almost nothing offensively against those two teams, I’m not sure how they’ll fare against the best team on the planet.
To me, everything there is to say about Manchester City is self-evident. They make an excellent team. 1st in NPxGD with +10 in 5 games. They are currently second in the table, thanks to a thrilling 3-3 draw with Newcastle a few weeks ago. It was unfortunate to win that one, with an xG of 3.7-2.2.
Their other matches are simply trucking teams with xG to match. Erling Haaland has a ridiculous 1.6 xG/90 average. For comparison, your leading goal scorers, Mo Salah and Son Heung-Min averaged 0.8 and 0.5 xG per match, respectively. The Norwegian Viking is doubling that… insane. Their defense is once again strong, allowing only 0.7 NPxGA per match. For me, City -1.5 is the best bet. This was covered in all four of their victories, and most of the time easily. We’re hoping for another 4-0 City 1H like we’ve had a few times this season.
Pick: Man City -1.5 (-114) 1.5 Units
Arsenal vs. Manchester United
The Red Devils will look to maintain their recent form when they host the Gunners at Old Trafford on Sunday. After an abysmal start to the season, Manchester United has won three straight, two of which have come on the road. Everyone can stop freaking out about relegation, which was ridiculous to begin with.
United should finish in the top six, but not in the top four, in my opinion. Yes, they’ve won three straight, but I’m not overly impressed with their play in those games.
In the Liverpool game, they were the better team, but they hung on late to win, and the xG was closer than you might think (2.0-1.5). The 1-0 victory over Southampton was fortuitous (1.34-1.36). The 1-0 victory over Leicester was also unimpressive (xG 1.1-0.6). For context, Southampton and Leicester are both struggling football clubs right now. So please forgive me if I am not penciling in a victory here. Still 9th in NPxGD, so I need to see a better showing before crowning them.
Don’t look now, but Arsenal are excellent. As much as I dislike saying it, I’m sure this means they’ll lose now. My soccer betting career has mostly consisted of betting against Arsenal, which has proven to be profitable. Let me tell you, not this season.
The Gunners have the second best NPxGD, trailing only Manchester City. Liverpool is just a point behind them in third place, but the moral of the story is that Arteta’s Arsenal could be the real deal.
They lead the table with five wins and fifteen points. Gabriel Jesus has been a fantastic sign for them and others. The section that has most impressed me is at the back. So far, they have allowed the fewest NPxGA (0.7/90 minutes) in the league. They were able to take a chance early in most of these games, and teams struggled to break them down. That is a significant improvement over last season, when they allowed 1.2 NPxGA/90.
This will most likely end closer to 1/match, but I’m impressed. Like United, you could argue that the Gunners’ schedule has favored them, as they have defeated three of their five opponents. That is possible, but they have an NPxG differential of +8. A few weeks ago, Liverpool was -150 in this game. Pk -105 has been assigned to me? Oh, that’s a wager.
Pick: Arsenal Pk (-104) 1.5 Units